第23期 | 2024年06月24日
贵金属市场周报
通过我们定期发布的市场报告获取贵金属市场内所有重大趋势的相关资讯。
2024年下半年欧盟汽车销量放缓可能会拖累钯金需求
2024年下半年欧盟汽车销量放缓可能会拖累钯金需求。5月，欧洲乘用车销量同比下降3%，主要受到德国这一最大市场销量同比下降4.3%的拖累。此前一个月，新车销量强劲增长13.7%。截至目前，欧盟新车总销量同比增长4.6%，达到460万辆（来源：欧洲汽车制造商协会）。欧洲汽车制造商协会去年估计，2024年欧洲新车销量将同比增长约2.5%，而2023年的增长率约为14%。如果这一预测准确，今年下半年欧洲的汽车销量会有所放缓。2023年推动增长的供应链重建和积压需求（加上与2022年历史低位销量的对比）已基本解决，而该地区经济背景疲软，预计即使不是销量，销量增长率也将逐年下降。如果夏季和下半年销量放缓，汽车制造商减少现货采购，钯金价格可能会面临压力。汽车制造商通常在9月至10月重新进入欧洲铂族金属市场，这可能会提供支持。然而，由于今年全球和西欧汽车钯金需求分别下降2.3%和2.0%，受BEV市场份额增长的影响，预计钯金价格将保持低迷。上周，钯金价格连续四个交易日跌破每盎司900美元，引发了一些买家的兴趣。截至周五收盘，钯金价格已升至每盎司967美元。
上周铑价上涨了125美元/盎司。自4月初以来，铑价一直在下跌，这是自3月28日以来的首次上涨。虽然铑价的大趋势是中性的，但今年较大的市场赤字可能会为铑价提供一些支撑。预计2024年工业部门的铑需求将增长，从而抵消了汽车行业的损失，不过目前汽车行业仍然是铑的最大最终用途。
上周，钌价和铱价均未出现任何变动，但两种金属的下跌趋势依然存在。如果南非在2024年下半年进一步削减铂族金属供应，这三种金属存在价格上涨的可能性，因为南非是小型铂族金属生产集中的地区。大型铂族金属开采商将从7月和8月开始报告半年和全年的业绩，这可能会揭示开采商是否会进一步削减生产。关闭矿山是矿场的最后手段，因为这一过程本身往往是昂贵的，可能会增加他们仍在运营中的活跃矿山的单位生产成本，因为关闭矿山并不能完全消除开支。
注册我们的市场报告
您想通过电子邮件接收我们的贵金属周报吗？填写下面的表格完成注册吧。
提交表格后，您将通过电子邮件收到一个激活链接。请点击链接确认您的注册。当然，你可以随时撤回这项同意。在每个邮件的末尾，你会发现一个相应的取消订阅链接。
The text on this page is not for the use of private individuals and solely aimed at professional market participants in the precious metals markets. It is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or sub-scribe for any investment. Heraeus has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Heraeus makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Heraeus only and are subject to change without notice. Heraeus assume no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correct-ness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence f reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, we assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for ost profit which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report. By embedding a link to an external Internet web site ("hyperlinks"), Heraeus does not adopt such an external Internet web site or its content as its own because Heraeus is unable to control the contents of such web sites constantly. Heraeus will also not assume any responsibility for the availability of such external Internet web sites or their contents, and any visit by the user of such external Internet web sites and their contents via hyperlink is at the user's own risk. Heraeus does not assume liability for any direct or indirect damage arising to the user from the use and the existence of information on these Internet web sites, and Heraeus does also not assume any liability that the information called by the user is virus-free. All prices shown are interbank market bid prices, all charts unless stated otherwise are based on Thomson Reuters.